AMSTERDAM -- Will the Netherlands, the best team never to have won the World Cup, win it this summer?
No.
Problem 1: The striker situation.
There's a fundamental gap in the Dutch tactics. Classical Dutch 4-3-3 soccer has always relied on a target man who can hold up play, get teammates involved and be strong in the air. This team is lacking in that area.
Robin van Persie is good in the air, but he roams too much and is injured at the moment. If he's even back in time he might not be at his best. Last week against the United States, Dirk Kuyt showed himself incapable of playing up top for the Netherlands. More effective as a hard-working second striker or sliding up from the right wing, Kuyt isn't the man.
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has the raw potential for the spot, but he doesn't always play at AC Milan and is prone to streakiness. Ruud van Nistelrooy, now 33, has yet to be recalled to the team, after announcing a willingness to return.
The U.S. showed that a team of tall central defenders that puts pressure on the playmaker playing behind the target man can severely disrupt the Dutch play, making service from the wingers as futile as attempts to reach the striker from the midfield.
But Oranje has bigger problems. Some fabulously talented teams have come through over the years, few of which even sniffed international hardware. Whenever it's failed to win the World Cup with the many more-than-worthy teams, it's been due to a number of possible factors:
(A) An inordinate amount of bad luck.
(B) Arrogance.
(C) Bad chemistry.
(D) All of the above.
This World Cup will most likely be filed away under option C. Which leads us to ...
Problem 2: Wesley Sneijder.
Sneijder is a card-carrying clubhouse cancer. That much has become clear. In a recent training camp for the Dutch national team he belittled a teammate for making 1/20th of what he does. His arrogance on the field is perturbing too, getting him sent off against AC Milan for sarcastically applauding one of the referee's decisions. Then there's the flouting of orders and undermining of his coach's authority.
Any coach worth his salt would tell you that ousting your star player is preferable to locker room mayhem. Netherlands coach Bert van Marwijk isn't so inclined. In fairness, his hands are tied. In the Netherlands (population: 16 million and change) they're fond of saying that the country has 16 million national team head coaches. If he cuts his best player and doesn't win it all, he will never be forgiven. What's more, he has no alternative. Even against the U.S., which tied Sneijder down very well and kept him from getting into a flow by employing a press that blocked all things going forward, he was still instrumental in both goals in the 2-1 win, earning a penalty and helping in creating Huntelaar's winner.
The only alternative for Sneijder is Rafael van der Vaart. But he isn't playing regularly for Real Madrid, doesn't pass as well, doesn't set up attackers as well and doesn't shoot from distance as well -- all elements pivotal to the subsistence of the Dutch.
Problem 3: Robin van Persie.
Another major headache for van Marwijk is van Persie's torn ankle ligament. Van Persie's original approach to recovery was to go see a nice lady in Serbia who claimed that she could massage placenta moisture into the ankle to help it heal more quickly.
Despite his being poorly cast for the role of target man, a Dutch side without van Persie has significantly less sting in its attack.
Problem 4: Wesley Sneijder and Robin van Persie.
Some teams do well in spite of their star players' loathing of one another. The Los Angeles Lakers won three consecutive NBA titles, all while Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant feuded mercilessly. That's because they usually set their differences aside once they stepped onto the court. Sneijder and van Persie have butted heads ever since van Persie savagely tackled Sneijder during a practice that was closed to everybody but the team and its staff. Van Persie then took a free kick that had been assigned to Sneijder against Russia during the fateful quarterfinals of Euro 2004. Apparently that was an unforgivable act, as the two still don't get along. Things could come to a head this summer, when they can't avoid each other much in the World Cup pressure cooker.
Problem 5: Bert van Marwijk.
As coach of a team such as the Netherlands your job is really quite simple. There isn't any teaching to do, the tactics have pretty much been the same for almost 50 years and the players are all in good shape. All that leaves is keeping the peace.
As evidenced by the above, this admittedly tricky chore hasn't been successfully executed by van Marwijk, as the allegedly toxic atmosphere in the locker room continues to fester. After right back Gregory van der Wiel claimed that he was injured and wouldn't be joining the team on the endless flight to Australia to play a friendly, he did manage to tweet that he was at a Lil Wayne concert, and van Marwijk again turned a blind eye.
Another thing he has failed to accomplish is to rein in his holding midfielders. Mark van Bommel, van Marwijk's son-in-law (that's a whole other can of worms), has yet to learn to take the recklessness out of his game. At almost 33, he doesn't look likely to change his ways, as he has accounted for a third (!) of all yellow cards incurred by his club Bayern Munich this season. His partner in crime, Nigel de Jong, showed just how edgy his game can be against the U.S., when he broke Stuart Holden's leg with a rash tackle.
Problem 6: the D.
The inheritance of Frank de Boer and Jaap Stam is one that few men can bear. Such is the weight of the stature of their predecessors that central defenders Joris Mathijsen, John Heitinga and André Ooijer look downright clownish in comparison. The Dutch have suffered a huge drop-off in the quality of their defense since the late 1990s and early 2000s. Good teams will expose them.
Problem 7: Life after van der Sar.
A goalkeeper like Edwin van der Sar comes along every 50 years, if you're lucky. The man who so heroically tended to the Dutch nets for 130 games, is no longer interested in doing so. Now 39, he is still performing well for Manchester United and has put off his retirement for another year. Pleas for his return have fallen deaf on his floppy ears.
Maarten Stekelenburg is an able shot-stopper, but with a redeeming goalkeeper more necessary than ever, frail as the defense is, there isn't one that will make up for the transgressions of those in front of him.
Like many before it, this gifted group of players won't lift a trophy, not this year at least. All of the above will see to it.
Leander Schaerlaeckens is a soccer writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at leander.espn@gmail.com.
