Kevin Keegan likes a gamble. That much is obvious from his decision to press on after England had gone two up on Monday. He should have closed things down, as the Norwegians, using players even less talented than England's, so successfully did against superior opponents the following evening.
So let him gamble on youth tomorrow. Give Gareth Barry a chance at left-back, or left wing-back if Keegan ditches his predictable 4-4-2 formation. And give Steven Gerrard, if he recovers from a groin injury, the opportunity of using his athleticism to offer England's hard-pressed defence the protection Paul Ince at his age and stage no longer can.
And for heaven's sake drop Alan Shearer, and let Michael Owen, operating ahead of Paul Scholes and Nick Barmby, really run at the Germans, with Heskey in reserve to pile on the pressure with his pace at some point in the second half.
This is the weakest German team for a generation. What a shame the same is true of England, whose limited prospects are blunted even further by Keegan's limitations as a strategist. And by the way, that has been my view all along, when I argued here against Keegan's appointment.
Some of the red tops, on the other hand, who are now blackening his character, were then blackening his boots with a lot of stuff about 'the nation's choice' and 'England Expects'.
On Monday night, the Press Association did a 'Shearer Watch', and depressing reading it makes. His only strike on target was a feeble header into the goalkeeper's arms in the first minute. More devastatingly, in the period immediately after Portugal went ahead from the 60th to the 78th minute, Shearer did nothing at all worthy of comment. No strike, no pass, no nothing. He didn't even touch the ball.
It was also rather sad watching ITV on Monday night. Two of the old England managers they've lined up, Bobby Robson and Terry Venables, could undoubtedly have done a better job than Keegan, and would do if appointed this minute.
Looking at them reminded me of the Roman historian who said you could tell when the empire was plunging into terminal decline because they started changing emperors every two years. And in his 13 years in an England shirt, Tony Adams has played under six different ones! Enough said.
I think we may beat the Germans tomorrow. Then, of course, the red tops will be off again, roaring patriotic nonsense, and everything about Monday will be forgotten. But it shouldn't be. The truth is the Germans are ripe for the taking and whatever happens in this tournament now, Keegan has to go. Only then can the rebuilding of England properly begin.
Premier League must not waste TV windfall
The big news of the new TV deal is not that the BBC have lost their toehold in Premiership coverage, but that the bonanza is not the scale predicted.
Far from £2 billion for the main package, Sky paid £1.1bn, and newcomer NTL £328 million for Sunday afternoon pay-per-view. Nevertheless, at £1.4bn before you even get to highlight packages, overseas sales and the rest, this is still a hell of a lot of money for the Premiership to waste.
Will they? The answer is, probably. Since the Sky bonanza began, players' wages have increased from £54m in 1992-3 to £245m in 1998-9. While this has meant an increase in quality, it has also meant a massive pay hike for the journeymen to the point that the overall Premiership business is looking decidedly rocky.
Last year, total income rose by £100m, but overall operating costs by £120m, including a massive 31 per cent increase in wages. As a result, on a turnover of £700m, the Premiership as a whole made a pre-tax profit of £19m. No other business would find that acceptable.
If all that's going to happen to the new loot is that Carlos Kickaball will get twice as much in four years' time as he does now, and other donkeys double their money too, what will the overall benefit to the game be? Not a lot.
It is said leading Italian and Spanish clubs are worried about the spending power of the English stimulated by this deal, but their big boys negotiate their own terms, and Barcelona's deal alone is worth £175m over the next five years. Most of the top Italians will net £30-35m from theirs, and have sources of finance not available in England.
Which is why I expect most of the big transfer action this close season to be there. The day we'll know we've cracked it is when Figo and Rivaldo come here, and there's no sign of that.
Now to the stuffing of the BBC. No one can say ITV won't do a good job. However, despite the Beeb getting the rights for the FA Cup and England internationals, Match of the Day is an institution and it's loss is still an enormous blow.
It will be missed, not least for John Motson and his cocommentators. I hope ITV will make him an offer he can't refuse.
Straw defends but his flank is still exposed
Tomorrow is the big test, and maybe the real trouble-makers have just been waiting for it, but so far so good. There have been no serious problems involving England fans. Such bother as there has been has involved the Turks, surprise, surprise, hurling missiles when a disputed penalty decision went against them, and the punch- up that followed the opening game.
That was largely a domestic affair, proving that hooliganism is not just an English problem, far from it. We have turned a drama into a crisis by failing to take effective action against 'known troublemakers', a view Home Secretary Jack Straw resents. He gave me a personal briefing last week, and in fairness I should put the case for the defence to you.
He believes that the European Convention on Human Rights would prevent removing the passports from reputed hooligans who have not been convicted of a serious criminal offence. And, he says, the
German laws that have been so talked up in English papers don't do much beyond banning serious criminals, and are not as far-reaching as suggested.
He says the work our police have done with their Belgian and Dutch counterparts is the most extensive and sophisticated policing operation ever for a football tournament. All those whose names have been supplied to the Benelux authorities have been told by letter not to travel, and he is confident nothing he and the police have said will mean it's open season on respectable English fans. But anyone convicted of a football-related offence will face a 10-year ban from domestic and international football when they get home.
Jack Straw is obviously aware how far his own reputation is on the line if things go wrong, and wants to get his retaliation in first.
A number of his points are worthy of serious consideration. But the ploy about the European Convention is an old one. It used to be tried on me when I was there. It's a convenient cover for civil servants who do not want to do anything.
In my view it is right in principle that 'known troublemakers' should be barred from travelling, and the fact they are not exposes a flank that could yet cause the Home Secretary terminal embarrassment.
