It's a squad game

The answer can still be postponed for a year, but the question will be posed nonetheless. Not, as is often asked, whether will England win the World Cup, but which players Fabio Capello will select for South Africa.

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Matthew Upson will travel to South Africa as back-up for Ferdinand and Terry

England's sporting sides have a long tradition of overestimating themselves and thinking too far ahead but, with only three points required, their footballers are all-but assured of a place at the World Cup. But which ones?

Given the clarity of Capello's thinking, there seem to be few places up for grabs. Fitness permitting, six men are surely certainties - Ashley Cole, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney - and at least as many again are probabilities. Injuries tend to be the bugbear of England managers, and they could cause the biggest rethink next summer, though outsiders should not be ruled out: Capello, more than his two immediate predecessors, has shown a willingness to pick in-form players.

It is relevant, too, that England's two most successful World Cup campaigns, 1966 and 1990, contained men who were uncapped a year before the tournament; indeed, their squad in Germany three years ago included a player, in Theo Walcott, who was yet to debut for his Premier League club.

Capello's left-field choices, however, have entailed some at the other end of the age spectrum: hence he opted for Gary Neville ahead of Micah Richards in his latest squad. A preference for experience is also apparent in his choice of understudies: Matthew Upson, rather than younger alternatives such as Phil Jagielka and Gary Cahill, seems established as the deputy for Ferdinand and Terry and it is telling that, while Joleon Lescott figured against Andorra, the West Ham man started the tougher of the double header, away in Kazakhstan.

There has been a vacancy because of Ferdinand's increasingly frequent absences, coupled with the fact another defender Capello appears to trust is still more injury prone. Nevertheless, a fully fit Wes Brown would provide cover for his Manchester United team-mate and a more defensive option than Glen Johnson. On the other flank, the reserve left-back's spot seems a straight choice between Wayne Bridge and Leighton Baines, with the Manchester City man possessing the advantage.

The goalkeeping equation is rather more complicated. David James is the first choice, partly because of a lack of competition, and Robert Green the current incumbent. There are indications Capello values Joe Hart and Ben Foster, but neither is guaranteed first-team football, and rather fewer signs he rates Paul Robinson highly. Much depends on whether Foster displaces Edwin van der Sar or if either he or Hart secure a loan move.

In midfield, Gareth Barry's near ever-present status under Capello means he is almost among the untouchables. The Italian may have been unhappy about Michael Carrick's late withdrawal from the most recent squad, but he is too pragmatic to ignore the playmaker for that reason. The wild card is England's most dependable performer in the last World Cup: if Owen Hargreaves ever regains fitness, his big-game temperament, ability to play right-back and similarities to stalwarts of previous Capello sides may bode well.

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There is a case for taking three potential holding midfielders, plus Lampard, especially as Gerrard can now be classed among the more attacking players. Whether there is an argument for picking a trio of right-sided midfielders is another matter, but Capello's continued loyalty to David Beckham means he often does. The former captain excelled against Andorra but it is to be presumed he is unlikely to reprise his quarterback role against more accomplished opponents and his deployment will be on the flank.

The ageing impact substitute will be 35 next summer, but he represents a more measured and experienced antidote to Walcott. Shaun Wright-Phillips and Aaron Lennon appear the two candidates for the third role on the right, but the choice of either means, apart from Gerrard, there is only one post on the left. As Ashley Young's opportunities have been limited, it would appear to pit Joe Cole against Stewart Downing. Despite the Middlesbrough man's excellence in Berlin in November, he is the underdog, offering more width but fewer goals and possessing a lesser pedigree.

If Gerrard provides an alternative to Rooney as the second striker, Jermain Defoe has cemented his status as the preferred predator, albeit starting as a substitute. Emile Heskey's unselfishness has earned him the target man's role which, injury apart, may only be endangered by his difficulty securing a starting place for Aston Villa. In what may be a three-way fight to be his deputy, Dean Ashton's fragile frame counts against him and, while Peter Crouch has an excellent scoring record in international football, Capello appears to harbour his reservations about the Portsmouth man. Carlton Cole's extra pace means he has more similarities with Heskey and, perhaps, more appeal to the Italian.

If Michael Owen would be the highest profile omission, he would not be the most surprising, despite his advocates' ostrich-like facility for burying their heads in the sand and ignoring his decline. If the men named below do constitute the final squad, that would leave three areas where England may fear they are understaffed: they would only have three out-and-out centre-backs, plus the versatile Brown, just four specialist strikers and a lack of natural left-footers on that side of midfield.

But a 23-man squad entails an element of compromise and Capello is not a man to shirk difficult decisions. Second-guessing him can be an awkward process. For the men on the fringes of the England squad, it will be a fraught one, too.

Capello's squad? David James, Robert Green, Ben Foster; Glen Johnson, Wes Brown, Matthew Upson, Rio Ferdinand, John Terry, Ashley Cole, Wayne Bridge; Gareth Barry, Owen Hargreaves, Michael Carrick, Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Joe Cole, David Beckham, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Theo Walcott; Wayne Rooney, Emile Heskey, Carlton Cole, Jermain Defoe