There seems to be so much to say about this game that it's difficult to know where to start.
GettyImages
Luis Enrique's bloodied nose at USA 94 has become a symbol of the rivalry between Spain and Italy.
Perhaps a view from street level is the best place to begin, since nobody I have spoken to in Spain - be it barmen, taxi-drivers, women, children and even my local tax officer think Spain are going to win. The only hope for Sunday's game is that the players are rather more optimistic.
The Spanish are nothing if not ritualistic, and their wonderful range of year-round fiestas arises from a deep sense of local history and tradition. They may be often anarchic, anti-authoritarian and Quixotic in their reluctance to face uncomfortable truths, but they do understand patterns and tendencies. Not only that - they depend on them. Mistrustful of themselves and of their own abilities, facts and statistics comfort them, as if destiny were lending some coherence to their lives. And that's why they find it hard to believe that they can beat Italy.
The last time they managed it in an official competition was in 1920, at the Antwerp Olympics. They won 2-0, went on to take the silver medal having beaten Holland in a hastily improvised second-place play-off (France and Czechoslovakia had packed their bags in protest and gone home) - another factor in the reading of the runes this weekend. Assuming Holland beat Russia, they will be Spain's next obstacle on the way to the final.
But nobody can seem to focus so far into the uncertain future of the virgin(ish) territory of the semi-finals. Let's get Italy out of the way first. Spain beat them 1-0 in a friendly last March, with a cracking goal from David Villa, and over the course of footballing history Spain have actually beaten Italy eight times, drawn ten and lost nine, but they know that it's the official stuff that counts.
The most wounding game to date has been the one that has occupied the front pages of the tabloids ever since the game was officially given a time (Sunday evening) and a place (Vienna). Last Wednesday's wholly predictable cover of Marca announced 'Italy - this cannot be forgotten' over the famous picture of Barcelona's Luis Enrique with his blood-stained shirt and agonised expression from fourteen years ago.
This was of course the infamous elbow of Tassoti in the quarter-final match in the USA which should basically have resulted in Spain being awarded a penalty - in a game that they lost after playing more than decently. Tassoti was subsequently found guilty and suspended, but as in South Korea eight years later, Spain felt cheated of a semi-final place. The last time they did get to the final was in France in 1984, when it was least expected of them, but they also lost that final in calamitous circumstances.
These Achilles Heels are what have marked Spain's recent history, and the feeling is that neither fate nor winning qualities have ever really defined the national side. Italy, for all their on-sleeve emotions, for all their tendency to begin tournaments slowly, are seen from the Spanish perspective as a side who thrive on adversity, who are capable of facing down a challenge in extremis and coming out laughing.
GettyImages
David Villa celebrates the goal that separated the two sides in a friendly last March.
The more desperate it becomes for them, the better they perform - or they simply have nine lives. This has never been said of the Spanish, perhaps until now. The two wins against Sweden and Greece were more a case of grinding out a result against two sides that had set out their stall to make life difficult for them. The initial result against Russia was an injection of morale, but is seen as less relevant now than the other two games.
There seems to be some evidence that Spain are beginning to learn to compete better, to keep the masts up when the weather turns a bit squally. Can they add this to the motivation provided by the hand of history, and break through symbolically into a new era? It may sound grandiose, but that is how the nation would view a victory against the dreaded Italians, above all because it would be the first one in 88 years.
But the omens continue to loom over this game like the Grim Reaper. The fact that the game is being played on June 22 has given the pessimists even more call to get out their rosary beads. Three times on this very date Spain have been knocked out at the quarter-finals stage - in the World Cup in Mexico in 1986, in England in 1998 and in the aforementioned game in the USA. Spooky eh? Read the runes and tremble.
Nevertheless, on the Thursday of this week, Marca followed up their campaign by wheeling out Luis Enrique to declare 'Vendetta!' Well - that would have been a little bit witty for him. He actually said 'I want David Villa to get revenge for me by knocking Italy out'. Well, and anyone else who fancies scoring will do just fine.
Italy themselves are wary of Villa and Torres, as well they might be, and with the hod-carrier Gattuso removed from the scene as well as the more creative Pirlo, Italy are going to have to depend on the speed and fluency of their counter-attacking game. It's difficult to see how else they will approach the game.
Luis Aragonés has apparently decided to revert to the side that so effectively dispatched Russia and Sweden, so it's possession of the ball that he will be wanting his players to emphasise - not the 'wait-for-mistakes' approach that worked so well against the Russians. The Italians don't make many mistakes in possession, and tend to use their briefer periods of ownership of the ball to inflict maximum damage as swiftly and in as energy-saving a manner as possible.
The nightmare for Spain is an early goal from Italy, and the uphill struggle that this would involve. Spain know full well that the way to beat Italy is to push them out of their comfort zone and to make them play against their instincts, against their whole upbringing. This is what Holland managed to do so effectively, turning the Italians into a side obliged to take risks. It made for a wonderful game, to which the Italians made a significant contribution, but their allegedly water-tight defence looked anything but once their midfield had found itself in the unaccustomed position of having to force the initiative. Italy died with dignity, but not without some agony as well.
On Sunday, with Gattuso out of the engine-room, Spain's quick pass-and-move game from the midfield to the two roaming forwards should stand a greater chance of prospering. If Spain fail to unlock the Italian defence, they will probably sacrifice the more defensive Senna in the last third of the game for the excellent Xabi Alonso, who made a decent case for inclusion from the start after his forceful and majestic performance against the Greeks.
The argument against Alonso starting is that the Italians will play 4-3-3, with De Rossi most likely to be the fulcrum of the play. Against such a system, it would be risky to begin without a recognised defensive midfielder, particularly given that centre-back Marchena suffers when not protected from players who run at him from deep.
GettyImages
Xabi Alonso's skills will be sacrificed for Marcos Senna.
The real threat that has been most talked about here, however, is Italy's ability to take maximum profit from set pieces, and the size of centre-forward Luca Toni. Two of the three goals scored against Spain so far have been a direct result of their inability to deal with aerial threat.
The Greeks' goal only served to emphasise this point against the 'reserves', and Italy will have taken note. For all Casillas' brilliance, he does not command the area as well as his opposite number Buffon, and any decent high ball can create panic in the Spanish ranks.
Can Spain do it? History says a thumping no, but instinct informs me otherwise. There's something a bit tougher about this squad, something more united (despite the nonsense between Aragonés and Ramos this week). Their self-belief has not yet been dented, and they're on a run of 19 games undefeated, the last 9 of which have been wins. It says something, but will it be enough?
If they can beat Italy, they can beat anyone.
