U.S. faces a difficult Olympic group

Once the draw is announced for an international tournament, the handicapping usually begins in earnest. Never mind that factors like roster composition have yet to be finalized. The recent form of the respective sides is usually enough to go on. Not so for the 2008 men's Olympic soccer tournament. There are still too many variables to get a true handle on what will transpire, and given the difficult group the United States has landed in, these unknowns offer a glimmer of hope.

With the exception of Group A's brutal lineup of Argentina, the Ivory Coast, Serbia, and Australia, the Americans' opponents in Group B couldn't be much tougher, at least on paper. Holland is merely the reigning two-time European U-21 champion. Nigeria, which won the tournament at the Atlanta Olympics in 1996, was a runner-up to Argentina at the 2005 U-20 World Cup, and has a roster littered with European-based players. Then there is Japan, a technical side that has given the U.S. everything it could handle in the past. Of course, difficult draws for the U.S. are nothing new, regardless of the level.

"I went through a similar situation with the U-20s when we had a very tough group at the [2007] World Championships," said midfielder Dax McCarty. "But I think with the team that we have, it will be very competitive, and hopefully we'll be able to advance."

Yet gauging the full potency of these opponents is complicated by several factors, not the least of which is the three overage players who will augment each team's roster. Nigeria could add the likes of England-based defenders Joseph Yobo of Everton and Danny Shittu of Watford. Following Feyenoord's failure to qualify for next year's UEFA Champions League, veteran striker Roy Makaay is set to feature for the Dutch.

But the single biggest issue impacting roster selection is the always-cooperative international calendar. Never mind that FIFA president Sepp Blatter has pleaded with European clubs to allow their players to participate. Some push-back seems inevitable.

When the Olympic tournament opens on Aug. 7 (the Olympic opening ceremony itself takes place on Aug. 8), Euro 2008 will still be fresh in the minds of players and coaches everywhere. This will include Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez, who will be none too keen to have Dutch attacker Ryan Babel play in another international tournament, one that would see him miss the third qualifying round of the Champions League. The early rounds of the UEFA Cup will take place at the same time, meaning that Nigerians like Yobo, or his club teammate Victor Anichebe, could come under considerable pressure to skip the Olympics should Everton qualify for European competition.

The U.S. isn't immune either. A likely World Cup qualifier in Guatemala is slated for Aug. 20, and should do plenty to impact head coach Peter Nowak's selections. The uncertain club futures of players like Michael Bradley could also prevent them from participating. More will be known on July 7, when the U.S. must submit its provisional roster of 30 players, with the final 18-man group to be chosen no later than July 23.

In the meantime, Nowak will take a team comprised mostly of foreign-based players to the Toulon Espoirs Tournament in late May, but no other camps are scheduled, meaning that the final selection process will be less of a science than Nowak probably would prefer.

"The MLS season has just started, and it's too early to make decisions on players at this point in the season," said Nowak. "As the season progresses, we'll have more information, and the European season will also be over in the next couple of weeks. We will have a tournament in France, and we'll try to accommodate everything with that because we cannot forget about the senior team's games coming up. So, it's still a couple of months, and everything is open."

Despite these obstacles and permutations, the Netherlands is still a solid favorite to win the group. Several of the players have Champions League or UEFA Cup experience, with Valencia midfielder Hedwiges Maduro and Real Madrid's Royston Drenthe the most notable.

Nigeria is a close second, although a falling out between head coach Samson Siasia and midfielder Mikel John Obi saw the Chelsea man left off the provisional roster. But the likes of Olympique Marseille defender Taye Taiwo, Chievo Verona's Victor Nsofor Obinna and Anichebe highlight the team's quality.

Japan and the U.S. have squared off several times, including a 0-0 tie at the 2007 Kirin Challenge Cup that saw goalkeeper Chris Seitz stand on his head. In qualifying, Japan was led by Celtic midfielder Koki Mizuno and VVV Venlo's Keisuke Honda.

So how can the U.S. hope to navigate its way past such formidable opponents? According to McCarty, the Americans will need to call on the experience gained from previous U-20 World Cups.

"If you look at our team, at least five or six of the guys should have that U-20 experience, playing against the Brazils, the Uruguays, the very tough teams that we had in our group," said McCarty. "There were some big-time players at that tournament ... We're looking forward to the challenge."

Japan will be the Americans' first opponent on Aug. 7, with the Netherlands next up on the 10th, and the Nigeria match set to take place three days later. Given this progression and the relative strengths of each side, it's imperative that the U.S. begins with a victory against Japan. Anything less and the Americans will be forced to play catch-up against opponents who would like nothing more than for the U.S. to try to take the game to them.

"It's obviously going to be a difficult game, because both teams will have the same mind-set," said McCarty of the opening match. "Both teams are going to want to come out and get three points. But if we can do that, we'll be sitting in a good position going into the last two games."

Until then, expect some surprises as the various rosters take shape, at which point the serious handicapping will commence.

Jeff Carlisle covers MLS and the U.S. national team for ESPNsoccernet. He can be reached at eljefe1@yahoo.com.