All Quiet on the Spanish Front

By the time that Spain play the Ukraine on Wednesday 14th in Leipzig, everyone bar Tunisia and Saudi (who play two hours later) will have played their opening game and have managed to settle into some sort of routine based on 'experience'.

For a side that is expected, by the general European press anyway, to do well this time around, it's a frustrating sort of beginning.

Spain were in fact the last of the 32 countries to arrive on German soil, having played their final warm-up game against Croatia (who flew straight to Germany post-match) in Geneva last Wednesday.

This has prompted the unofficial slogan for Spain's chances in this tournament, a joke based on Matthew Chapter 19, Verse 30: 'But many that are first shall be last, and the last shall be first'. The folks are cracking this one in the bars up and down the country, despite a few lame attempts by the press to whip up a bit of national enthusiasm for the cause. The last to arrive, the first to go home. It could happen. It has certainly happened before.

It's been a quiet sort of build-up, not much controversy, not much wailing and gnashing of teeth. I can hardly recall such a muted build-up to a major competition. There may be two reasons for this.

The first one is that folks just don't believe in the national side any more, at least as far as their possibilities in a World Cup are concerned.

The 'dark horses' label that has dogged Spain for so long has finally been chiselled into stone, rendering the fact that Spain always disappoint a truism, unworthy of further analysis.

So they've never progressed beyond the quarter-finals - and although this squad is undoubtedly shot through with quality, it's not the best squad that Spain has ever taken to a World Cup. That was probably in Chile, back in 1962, and they 'disappointed' then.

Logic has deemed this time, in a more cynical, perhaps wiser Spain, that there is precious ground for optimism.

Or perhaps it's just superstition? There is certainly a collective national paranoia at the moment regarding over-blowing of the trumpet. Back in France '98, a spunky new generation of players led by Raúl and steadied by Guardiola was sent into battle with the words of the then Prime Minister Aznar ringing in their ears.

'I hope the squad will reflect the up-and-coming power of the new Spanish nation' he proclaimed. Yeah right. Three games later they were on the plane home and Aznar was on the hotline to a desperately unhappy manager Clemente, explaining to him that he had been taken out of context and that he hadn't meant to imply that the squad could consider the tournament plain sailing. Because everything had been 'up-and-coming' that year - the nation, the players, the media hype, the politicians desperate to bask in the glory...the glory that never came.

The country has learned from this. It no longer makes these mistakes, and its caution comes over as pessimism. Current PM Zapatero saw off the players with the rather more ambiguous 'I sincerely hope we can really do something this time', which is a rather more intelligent cover-all phrase.

Everyone was left with eggs on their faces in '98, and the yolk stains are still there. In the USA and Korea it was more a case of 'we wuz robbed' - and Spain probably were - but there is nothing so ugly as a nation that begins to think that there is some sort of international conspiracy against it.

Only last week the tabloid Marca, doing its best to hoist the flag, ran an edition whose front page announced 'And which one of them is going to rob us this time?', alluding to the various occasions throughout World Cup history (going back to Italy 1934) when the Spanish were unfairly treated.

It's not that the analysis of these various crimes is inaccurate - it's just that it's irrelevant. The only way that Spain will ever win the World Cup is by casting off its hard-done-by psyche and getting down to some real confident competing.

Luis Aragonés, their 67 year-old manager, has taken along a squad 'psychologist', but it remains unclear as to exactly whose idea this was. It's not the kind of thing that Aragonés - very much from the old school of management - appears to have a great deal of time for.

When asked about this at a press conference in Madrid a fortnight ago, he simply replied 'The best psychologist is three points.' Can't argue with that.

The second reason for the relative quiet is probably the absence of any televised analysis or follow-up of the warm-up friendlies from the main public channel TVE1, who lost out (scandalously) to the private Digital 6 in the bidding war for the rights to screen the World Cup.

Since the only other place you can watch is the subscribers' channel Canal Plus, there has been a reluctance on the part of TVE1 to invest in any in-depth features about the tournament, as if they felt they were just helping along Digital 6 and Canal Plus' eventual figures.

We've seen nothing about the other teams in Group H, and the coverage of the last three warm-up games was brief and concise, with no expert panels, and no post-match chit-chat. As such, there has been exhaustive tactical and technical analysis of the Spanish squad in the press, but hardly a paragraph about Spain's three Group H opponents.

Of the three, Ukraine are seen correctly as the main threat, but Tunisia and Saudi Arabia seem to be worryingly dismissed as unworthy of real attention.

Saudi may well prove to be the makeweights against whom it will be compulsory to score goals, but even that is in doubt, by all accounts. They may lack punch, but they are better organised than in previous appearances at the finals.

And Tunisia seem to be highly rated by many, spoken of in the same breath as the Ivory Coast - albeit playing with a different style. They'll be no pushovers - but I am yet to read the equivalent phrase to this in any of the national newspapers.

Are Spain any good? Well it's a funny old bunch that Aragonés has picked this time. They don't often lose (as evidenced by their unbeaten records in the qualifying group) but they don't always win either, and they struggle to convert their undoubted ability to retain possession into goals.

It may be that the excellent David Villa, fresh from a 25-goal campaign in La Liga, will lead the line with authority and goals, but he is relatively green in international terms. He is a small and mobile player, stocky and strong with an ability to hold onto the ball and attack defenders, but he may find the step up a little more daunting than he currently realises.

If Villa fails to score - and he failed in all the warm-up games, then the 'child' Fernando Torres will be expected to do the business, since no-one seriously expects Raúl to do it.

But Torres, for all his bluster and bravery, is a firer of blanks, a freckle-faced version of Didier Drogba, who scores one for every ten he has blasted over the bar from three metres out. To give Torres credit, like Drogba he often makes these chances for himself with muscle and with good movement off the ball, but he is not a World Cup winner. He's got strength, but no class. He'll be found out.

And when he is, the only chance that Spain will have of making a mark will be via their midfield, where there is class in abundance. When people say that Spain are a great side 'on paper', it is the middle of the park to which they are referring. The list reads like a thrusting young European players Who's Who.

Xabi Alonso, Xavi, Cesc, Iniesta, Reyes, Joaquín..it's enough to turn the rest dark green with envy. And Guti, Valerón and De la Peña left at home.

But where's the balance? This is precisely the (only) debate that has been raging in the press for the last fortnight, the analysis suggesting that the composition of the midfield would seem to dictate the country's possibilities - which is very true.

The defence is sound - if Sergio Ramós is restored to centre-back and Salgado returns to right-back, where both are more effective. Puyol, who looks more like an impassive lorry-driver every year, just gets better, as does goalkeeper Casillas.

Del Horno has gone home and been replaced on the left by the Hispano-Argentine Pernía, who scored on his debut in the friendly 2-1 against Croatia. He looked excellent, and could be the revelation of the tournament for Spain. He scored 11 goals for Getafe this season from left-back, and proved his willingness to get forward against Croatia. A link-up with Reyes would be interesting.

But what does Aragonés go for? He has brought along Senna and Albelda, both good destroyers but more limited in their distribution. To play them both is to send out a negative message, and yet this is precisely what Aragonés did in two of the friendlies.

To be fair, he always shuffled things around at half-time, but the opening formations were always the more defensive ones. Most of the Spanish press are gunning for Xabi Alonso to be given the reins, and for the rest to fit around him. Xavi has just returned from a long-term injury, and cannot be expected to carry the weight just yet.

Cesc Fabregas looks a little lost away from Highbury and Iniesta has so far been the last man to be considered, although he has always looked the part when he's come on. But if you play Alonso and Cesc (for example) then it makes sense to play two wide men to give the ball to, since the principal virtues of these two Premier League midfielders is the speed at which they can distribute telling and accurate balls.

If Joaquín and Reyes play to their potential, they can run any side in the world ragged. But they rarely do. And so Spain revert back to Albelda - solid but hardly the man who is going to help the goal drought disappear.

Without him (or Senna) the midfield lacks bite, and opposing sides seem to cut though rather too easily. It's not a unique problem, but it is one that Aragonés, on the eve of the opening game, does not seem to have solved.

The squad's own morale is fairly high, and the teams selected showed a certain doggedness and spirit in the warm-up games that might just pay some dividends.

You never know. If they get on a run, they might get a chance to beat that quarter-final duck. But the nation has its doubts. And so does this columnist.

---

Phil is a published author of some repute and we're very lucky to have him here on Soccernet. If you want to own a real-life Phil Ball book, you can purchase either An Englishman Abroad, Beckham's Spanish Adventure on that bloke with the ever-changing hairstyle, White Storm, Phil's book on the history and culture of Real Madrid and his splendid and acclaimed story of Spanish football, Morbo.

If you've any comments for Phil, email the newsdesk

Click here to visit the Soccernet Store