Not believing the hype

Heaven knows how dangerous the hype surrounding the Italian national team has always been. And it's even more so when meaningful competition is months away and form can fluctuate wildly.

You can rarely count on any predictions about club sides, which at least enjoy a consistent run of practices and matches and are in view week-in week-out, so the theory applies even more to national teams, whose ultimate performance can depend upon a huge variety of factors.

Italy's convincing win over Germany last week spawned a number of comments ranging from the wildly enthusiastic to the merely optimistic.

Despite the incompetence of the German side, which did look as if it had been put together from someone living a continent away from the Bundesliga, the way the azzurri played, with gusto and flair, left a lasting impression on all onlookers. Lasting, at least, until the next match, which won't be until late May during pre-World Cup training.

One of the things coach Marcello Lippi has going for him is that his mind is set on most if not all of the 23 players he will name in his squad for the World Cup. He admitted as much on Sunday night, while appearing live from a remote studio on La Domenica Sportiva, Italy's longest running Sunday night soccer show.

The bonhomie last week's win generated meant Lippi was treated like royalty and only challenged in passing on the some of the still-to-be resolved issues.

These include his loyalty to Christian Vieri and a refusal to acknowledge Pippo Inzaghi's stunning recovery from what looked like a career-threatening foot injury, or Cristiano Lucarelli's continuing good form.

Perhaps it was all down to the fact it is already generally accepted that he refuses to answer those kind of questions, but it has always been uncomfortable to watch a studio audience clap everything a guest says, especially one with some clout, and still believe I'm watching what is supposed to be journalism at work.

But then one has to be sympathetic with the task of colleagues who sometimes have no alternative, lest they get dismissed out of hand or turned down the next time.

And this applies to a lot of prominent soccer figures, who are apparently taught that any question that does not involve unconditional cheerleading must be deemed hostile. Lippi's position is as strong as ever, given Italy's 16-match unbeaten run and the last couple of displays, seeing them beat Holland away and Germany at home.

Of course, it comes with the territory, being three months away from the World Cup, with much of the focus now being directed towards the Champions League. We've already been subjected to the concept that Werder Bremen and Bayern Munich may want to avenge last week's defeat by the national team.

But what must make Lippi comfortable is the feeling that his plan, which was drawn up during his first weeks in charge, is going according to prediction.

It is not rocket science. In fact, it's what every soccer coach must wish for; pick out a few players you're going to count on to form the core of the team, set a playing style and select the rest of the squad based on what each addition can fit into that style.

At first, Lippi went through a few puzzling choices, and some of the names he brought along in the 2005 summer tour of the USA, mostly plucked straight from the Serie A's Top XI, had little future with the azzurri from the start, but what he had in mind was always clear, as have been some of his choices.

Lippi has always reiterated Antonio Cassano, arguably Italy's best player at the 2004 European Championships, would not be called up if his playing time, first with Roma now with Real Madrid, would be little to nil.

And when Del Piero seemed to struggle for minutes at Juventus earlier this season it seemed the old stalwart of Lippi's former club side would have to fight for a place, if the coach's words ('he's not among those certain of being in the squad for the World Cup') before the last qualifying match against Moldova count for something.

Del Piero has since blossomed, once again, as a force from off the bench, but unless Francesco Totti doesn't come back in full strength from his bad ankle injury, Juve's all-time top-scorer will have to settle for joining a match in progress. Totti, without doubt, is Italy' most influential player as far as the side's playing style is concerned.

Lippi maintains he sees Roma's captain as a midfielder, albeit of the attacking variety, and has played him behind two strikers when he's had everyone at his disposal.

But there is also no-one in the squad, except for Cassano, or, on current form but still a stretch, Perrotta, who could effectively be deployed in that position.

Del Piero has similar skills but so far he's been used as a second striker or, like last week, up front on the left side in a 4-3-3, which was made necessary by Totti's absence and had also been used against Ireland back in August and against Holland in November.

Del Piero does not like being seen as Totti's back-up, but he might well be, in a different formation, if the Roman does not come back in time.

As for the other strikers, Gilardino and Toni combined well against Germany but at the moment there seems to be every chance they will not be the starting pair in the World Cup.

The suspicion is Toni may still be found out by superior competition. He's been having a fantastic season for Fiorentina, so much so that if he goes two matches without scoring simplistic people bring up the dreaded word 'crisis'.

However, Lippi's loyalty to Vieri - who he deems essential for the squad, possibly since he's the ideal team-mate despite, or perhaps because, of his contentious relationship with the media - could leave the door open for the current Monaco striker to still claim a place.

Many, and count yours truly among them, believe Inzaghi should be part of the World Cup squad, since Italy do not have anybody else with his predatory instincts and the ability to come off the bench and provide instant offence to a defence. Italy's win over Germany provided little concern for Lippi in other areas.

Daniele De Rossi proved his great form with Roma is no fluke and the 22-year old, who's also an excellent header of the ball, is staking a claim for a starting place, but there seems to be little doubt that once Gattuso is back he will resume his position covering Pirlo's back in the midfield trio.

Camoranesi again will start with his ability to drift inside and leave the right flank free for Zambrotta, who can double on the left flank, or Zaccardo. It's time to forget about Christian Panucci, who seems to have been in Lippi's doghouse for ages now.

Form and bodies holding, Nesta and Cannavaro should be able to duplicate the performance they gave against Germany.

Despite the erosion of the cliché about the abundance and shirt-grabbing effectiveness of Italian defenders, plus a paucity of able replacements, Lippi should have fewer worries for the centre of defence as he might have for one of the flanks, where Zambrotta can play on either side though his position may well depend on whoever hits the best form for the other flank.

Not all opponents from now on will display the frightful incompetence Germany did last week, and Lippi wisely said the best thing the game in Florence did for him was not the result, which everyone will have forgotten about in a couple of months' time, but the way Italy played; the confirmation that his plan has solid foundations and that the core of the squad has developed a sense of togetherness and urgency. The latter augurs well.

Over-the-top optimism must be avoided at all costs, as does the excessive use of previous experiences to address the policies that should be part of the planning this time.

Yes, Italy glided into the 1974 World Cup in Germany on the strength of a 15-match unbeaten run, but failed to progress to the second round. And, yes, Enzo Bearzot stuck to his decision to bring along Paolo Rossi, who'd only been a few weeks out of a long suspension, to the 1982 World Cup, leaving the Serie A's top scorer Roberto Pruzzo at home and ended up winning it all.

But that was the past and has no meaning whatsoever on what will happen this time.

Just go on pretending the game against Germany and the premature excitement never existed.

And with the hype surrounding this week's Champions League matches already enveloping us with its hollow Germany v Italy revenge match theme, it has been fairly easy to do.

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