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La Liga predictions - The odd couple
Was your thirst for Spanish football, controversy and embarrassment satiated by the recent Supercopa, dear reader? No? Are you really still thirsty? Frustrated with the strike? Don't worry, ESPNsoccernet has what you need. Please follow me in a psychic-like exercise to predict the final standings of this season's Liga tournament, before the next 'super-clasico' (aka Judgement Day) arrives.
After thorough analysis, five groups of teams from bottom to top clearly materialised before the eyes of this humble writer:
• Group A: Bitter end. These three teams look fatally flawed for different reasons. They may even put up a decent fight, but should end up in the Segunda Division when all is said and done.
20. Granada
The positives: President/agent Enrique Pina's connection with Udinese has brought three decent players to improve the side. Something tells me that the influx of talent from Italy will continue during the season.
The negatives: Not even the Udinese connection can make Granada's squad consistent or deep enough.
19. Levante
The positives: Levante defeated Bolton in pre-season. With time, it will become their greatest win of the year.
The negatives: They not only lost top scorer Felipe Caicedo, but also sensible gaffer Luis Garcia (to Getafe). Their less reasonable new manager, Juan Ignacio Martinez, wants Levante to play keep ball. A new Juan Manuel Lillo in the making?
18. Rayo Vallecano
The positives: Few things in life are more fun than watching a midday Primera Division match at Vallecas. So glad Rayo are back, even if it's just for one season.
The negatives: Rather than celebrating their promotion, Rayo's players and coach spent the summer fighting with the new owner of the club over unpaid salaries and broken promises. They are under judicial administration due to the club's debts and have lost two of their best players over the summer, without decent reinforcements. Sounds like an immediate return to the Segunda to me.
• Group B: The Artful Dodgers. They will flirt with relegation all season long, but will pull off a bit of magic at the right time to stay up one more year.
17. Racing Santander
The positives: Uruguayan striker Christian Stuani should lead the line more competently than any of his predecessors last season in Santander.
The negatives: Pedro Munitis is one year older, Giovani dos Santos has left and manager Hector Cuper hardly seems the man to get the most out of this extremely limited squad. When you sign players from teams such as Pontevedra or Salamanca, you're already looking down.
16. Real Zaragoza
The positives: Zaragoza's serious financial difficulties haven't made Mexican manager Javier Aguirre leave... yet.
The negatives: When your club is almost bankrupt and the management create a parallel investment fund to sign players, using that cash to spend €8.6 million on Benfica's reserve keeper, Roberto, it hardly fills supporters with confidence. Especially after your two best players (Gabi Fernandez and Ander Herrera) left during the summer.
15. Mallorca
The positives: Despite the lack of cash to sign a decent forward, the spine of the team looks solid, able to avoid repeating last season's meltdown in the final two months.
The negatives: Mallorca have sold their top scorer, Webo, playmaker De Guzman looks on his way out and skipper Jose Nunes just broke his ligaments. It'll be a tough start to the season for gaffer Michael Laudrup.
14. Sporting Gijon
The positives: The youngest team in the division is one year older, more experienced and better synchronised, with coach Manuel Preciado leading the group for the fifth consecutive season. That can't hurt.
The negatives: Scoring was an issue last year that seems still unaddressed by the Gijoneses.
13. Real Sociedad
The positives: Gained a great deal of experience last year, and have a decent base to build on and avoid the drop.
The negatives: Their lack of signings over the summer is almost shocking. Should they end up selling Antoine Griezmann, the Realistas could finish even lower.
12. Osasuna
The positives: The Navarros have managed to compensate for the sale of key players (left back Monreal, midfielder Camunas) with some shrewd signings. Prodigal son Raul Garcia and striker Nino should quickly make an impact at the Reyno de Navarra.
The negatives: Without Camunas, the Rojillos lack a playmaker. They'll need someone to step up and provide service to the strikers.
• Group C: Neither here, nor there. Differently from last year, La Liga will have a number of clubs spending a peaceful, eventless season in the middle of the table.
11. Real Betis
The positives: They have kept the solid structure of the 2010-11 season, and added talent where required. Should take more than one bigger club by surprise.
The negatives: Physically gifted midfielder Achille Emana left the club for Saudi outfit Al-Hilal against his own will, as Betis needed the money. Tough loss for the Verdiblancos.
10. Espanyol
The positives: Solid signings, including Uruguayan talent Adrian Luna. On paper, their squad look more consistent than last year, which should strengthen their home advantage at Cornella.
The negatives: Espanyol's top striker last season, Argentinean Pablo Osvaldo seems determined to leave.
9. Getafe
The positives: The cash coming from the Middle East has been prudently spent. Management opted for proven talent at reasonable prices, and put the cherry on the cake with striker Daniel Guiza, who can become the steal of the season assuming he recovers his fitness.
The negatives: The advertising campaign to bring more fans to the usually empty Coliseum Alfonso Perez will probably make potential fans to stay away from the stadium. The new advertisement exhorts Getafe fans to donate sperm in order to populate the world with Getafe supporters. Bizarre, to say the least.
8. Atletico Madrid
The positives: The last-gasp signing of Radamel Falcao brought some reasons for optimism to the Atletico faithful.
The negatives: The radical revamp of the squad (new coach, Gregorio Manzano, plus ten signings so far) makes it difficult to imagine when or if the team will gel. The losses of De Gea, Sergio Aguero and the more than likely exit of Diego Forlan will take their toll.
• Group D: Flirting with the other side of the Pyrenees. The following clubs will fight among themselves for the right to play in European competitions in 2012.
7. Sevilla
The positives: Took hard decisions that needed to be made in terms of oxygenating the squad.
The negatives: Even though a change of approach and personnel was indeed required, the exit of several players that were instrumental in the last few seasons casts some doubt over what the team will look like. Sevilla's track record supports them, though.
6. Villarreal
The positives: Surprisingly enough, the Amarillos haven't sold a single forward (Brazilian Nilmar and Italian-American Giuseppe Rossi) yet. New arrival Javier Camunas and likely signing De Guzman fit the profile of the club and strengthen their already solid midfield.
The negatives: The loss of Santiago Cazorla will be felt not only on, but also off the pitch.
5. Malaga
The positives: Hard to list them all. Other than the two giants, Malaga have done the best job of putting together a 23-man squad, helped by the insightful head of Antonio Fernandez, the architect of several of those extremely profitable signings by Sevilla in the second half of the 2000s. In the hands of Manuel Pellegrini, not getting to Europa League positions would mean a serious underachievement for the Andalusian club.
The negatives: After an almost perfect pre-season, expectations are sky high. Pressure would mount if results take time.
4. Athletic Bilbao
The positives: Against all odds, Athletic kept their main stars, such as Fernando Llorente, Javier Martinez and Iker Muniain. Marcelo Bielsa's high-pressure approach should be able to extract more out of the squad than previous manager Joaquin Caparros.
The negatives: Allowing Bielsa room to work the way he likes to might be the biggest challenge for Athletic's management.
3. Valencia
The positives: The valencianistas look comfortable in their position as the third team in the country. They have reinforced key positions (goal, wings), while keeping their structure from last year. Should end up in a Champions League spot.
The negatives: After a reasonably successful season, Valencia's management took too much time to renew Unai Emery's contract. Their relationship sounds worn-out, which could have consequences in high pressure moments during the year.
• Group E: The odd couple. Barcelona and Real Madrid will continue their (literal) fights over the Spanish throne, with the Catalans getting the final victory in a very close race.
2. Real Madrid
The positives: After a depressing sequence of matches against Barcelona, the team have indeed recovered their self-belief. The squad looks physically intimidating and ready for a long season. The signings give Jose Mourinho plenty of tactical options, both in attack and defence.
The negatives: Mourinho's siege mentality has impregnated the whole squad up to a counterproductive level, especially among the most psychologically unstable players. Even playing at their best level against a not totally fit Barcelona, the madridistas were not able to seal a convincing win in the Supercopa.
1. Barcelona
The positives: The summer reinforcements have brought Pep Guardiola an amazing array of offensive combinations. The Cesc Fabregas - Andres Iniesta - Xavi Hernandez trio is a joy to watch (mark my words).
The negatives: Skipper Carles Puyol's match fitness is still questionable, after several months trying to get back in shape. Despite the deeper squad, several players are injury-prone, which could have an impact in a shorter, more intense season.
• PS. You can follow me on twitter! (@EdAlvarezSpain).
