It's getting grim at Maine Road as the clouds gather (MichaelSteele/Allsport)

City have descended from a side looking capable of staying in the top flight to one doomed to be down by Easter.

It's a story we've heard before. Sunderland and Charlton can both point to enjoying their first couple of months in the Premiership before sinking into the relegation zone come May.

It seems that most seasons the majority of the promoted clubs start well, buoyed by the euphoria which took them up from the First Division.

Class usually tells in the end, and that's exactly what's happening at Maine Road.

City's record does make frightening reading, and an escape route seems very far away just now. In the last three months they have won just the one game - amazingly 5-0 at home to Everton back in December.

There has been little cheer for the fans despite earning a place in the last eight of the Worthington Cup. If City are to get out of this hole, it's going to be their home form that will decide their fate.

But things are looking increasingly grim. The last two games at Maine Road saw 4-0 and 4-1 thrashings dished out. Joe Royle's side looked low on confidence, skill and ideas.

The calls for Royle's head have come slowly but surely - even if some of them were from a contingent of pranksters from the other side of Manchester intent on causing mischief for their deadly rivals.

As they say, City are a 'massive' club!

City must stick with Royle. It would be idiocy to dump the man who has made a reality what can only have been a dream for City fans two years ago.

It was December 1998 when the Blues were languishing in mid-table in the Second Division, looking anything but promotion contenders.

The former Oldham and Everton boss guided the side on an unbelievable run which saw City reach the play-offs and then earn a dramatic, late, extra-time victory over Gillingham at Wembley.

The success of winning a place back in the top flight is not only down to Royle, however.

City's finances were about as organised as the clubs defence is now, until chairman David Bernstein steadied the ship and put the club back on an even keel.

But Bernstein will not turn his back on Royle. This is the first time the boss has hit a glitch in his master plan to make City great again, and a return to the quick-fire sackings of the past will only set the club back.

He said last week: 'Joe Royle needs time and he will be given it considering what he has managed to do for us over the previous two years.

'I'm not one for the 'vote of confidence' game because people just laugh at such things, but he will be given the time he needs to turn this club into a major success story because we have great belief in him.

'He and the rest of us have worked very hard to get were we are. We are going through a sticky phase now but this is a time to pull together.'

Fans point to the sacking of Peter Reid in 1993 as the main reason for the club's decline. Reid had a bad run of nine games without a win either side of the summer break and the club lost patience and gave him the boot. What many forget is that a large cluster of fans called for Reid's sacking.

Many pundits were shocked at the decision and from then on a procession of managers came and went, unable to find a winning formula amid the chaos behind the scenes.

Giving Royle the sack would only provide a chilling echo to the City of old.

Even if the club go straight back down, which I firmly believe they will, Royle must stay. Things may not have worked out for him in his dream job at Everton, but he proved at Oldham that he has what it takes.

Joe Royle: City backing him despite recent poor results (AlexLivesey/Allsport)

The boss has set a target of 38 points to be in with a chance of staying up. That seems beyond them.

The dramatic transformation in fortunes will have to begin next Wednesday at Maine Road when Liverpool are the visitors. Hardly the easiest of matches, but the time has come to produce the goods.

Given the run-in City have, a 33 point total looks to be their limit, nowhere near enough to preserve their stay back in the top flight.

With trips to a rejuvenated Middlesbrough and European challengers Newcastle to follow early next month, City could be planning for life in the Nationwide sooner rather than later.

And what's worse for City is that they face United four games from end of the season. How cruel it would be to see their bitter rivals send them down.